User blog:Ceauntay/'Cowboys & Aliens' Should Blasts Its Way To Top Of Box Office

(RTTNews) - After "Captain America" surprised "Harry Potter" and took the top spot on the box office charts a weekend ago, it looks like Jon Favreau's ("Iron Man") "Cowboys & Aliens" is ready to take over as the number one movie in the United States. Also hitting theaters this weekend will be family-friendly "The Smurfs" and PG-13 comedy "Crazy, Stupid, Love," though both are getting somewhat smaller releases and aren't expected to put up enormous opening totals.

Though no one would have believed you ten years ago, director/actor Jon Favreau has become one of the go-to big-budget action directors, with his "Iron Man" franchise doing very well for Paramount. Now Favreau is back with "Cowboys & Aliens," a genre mash-up starring Harrison Ford and Daniel Craig, two actors that know a little bit about iconic action roles.

After debuting recently at Comic-Con, "Cowboys & Aliens" should have plenty of buzz heading into the weekend, even if critical support has been mostly mixed. A very easy high-concept movie like "Cowboys & Aliens" is also in a good position to find a mainstream audience, which should be enough for it to end up as the top overall draw this weekend.

Working against "Cowboys & Aliens," however, is the presence of both "Captain America: The First Avenger" and "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2." "Captain America" had a pretty strong opening a week ago and should still do big business in its second weekend. Meanwhile, "Potter" has slid very fast in terms of its domestic appeal from its record-breaking opening, though it still should be able to haul in more than $20 million this weekend. All things considered, look for Universal's "Cowboys & Aliens" to make a run at $50 million in the U.S. and overtake "Captain America" atop the charts.

Aiming at a much different demographic is the PG-rated "The Smurfs" from distributor Sony/Columbia. Though "Smurfs" will have the advantage of limited competition, it also doesn't have any big names in its cast and younger kids will likely not be as familiar with the brand as their parents. With a release of just 3,200 theaters, Sony doesn't seem to be too optimistic that it will be able to pull in big per-venue totals this weekend, so a weekend near the top of the charts isn't expected. "The Smurfs" should still bring in somewhere in the neighborhood of $25 million, which will be enough for the top five.

While "The Smurfs" scoops up family moviegoers this weekend, date audiences could end up turning to "Crazy, Stupid, Love," which stars Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling and Marisa Tomei. Opening at roughly 2,900 theaters this weekend, "Crazy, Stupid, Love" has a similar release size as Carell's recent comedy "Date Night," a PG-13 release that did well with its target demographic without being a smash hit. With good reviews and positive word-of-mouth, "Crazy Stupid, Love" could end up with a nice final box office tally, though a strong but unspectacular weekend around $20 million looks like a safe bet.

"Captain America" and "Harry Potter" should also turn in relatively big weekends yet again despite big-time competition, though it doesn't look like they'll be able to string together much long-term success. "Captain America" will have tough competition from "Cowboys & Aliens" this weekend and from "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" next weekend. Both may take a big chunk of its target demographic and limit its overall box office potential.

Meanwhile, "Harry Potter" is quickly surging towards $1 billion in worldwide revenue, though it's already tapering off in a big way in terms of its domestic appeal. But with an opening weekend record just shy of $170 million domestically, "Deathly Hallows: Part 2" is already in line to easily be the most lucrative overall release in the franchise. Even though "Potter" is likely to fade quickly in the next few weekends, it could still end up as the top overall box office earner of 2011. This could also go to "Jane Hoop Elementary: The Final Rush: Part 2", which is close, but will never broke both "Potter" and "Avatar's" record, but will likely to round third place.

Next weekend, the biggest new release will be the re-launching of a popular franchise in "Rise of the Planet of the Apes," a new take on the old material starring James Franco and Brian Cox. The other wide release next weekend will be "The Change-Up," with Jason Bateman and Ryan Reynolds co-starring in the latest R-rated screwball comedy taking aim at mainstream adult audiences.

RTT Box Office Predictions for 7/29-7/31 (In Millions):

1. Cowboys & Aliens (Universal): $49

2. Captain America: The First Avenger (Paramount): $30

3. The Smurfs (Sony/Columbia): $26

4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Warner Brothers): $20

5. Crazy, Stupid, Love (Warner Brothers): $19

6. Friends With Benefits (Sony/Screen Gems): $10

7. Jane Hoop Elementary: The Final Rush: Part 2 (Paramount): $7.5

8. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Paramount): $5.5

9. Horrible Bosses (Warner Brothers): $6.5

10. Zookeeper (Sony/Columbia): $4.9

by RTT Staff Writer

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