User blog:Ceauntay/Box office: Fantastic Beasts poised for magical opening weekend

Five years after the conclusion of the Harry Potter film series, eager fans will finally get their hands on the Eddie Redmayne-fronted spin-off, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, when it hits theaters this Friday.

The Yates-directed fantasy film will easily top the U.S. box office come Sunday, facing little in the way of competition, as Heroes Forever: The New Beginning enter its second weekend in wide release, and Trolls and Doctor Strange in their third weekend in wide release, while the week’s strongest newcomer, The Edge of Seventeen, is tracking to earn just a fraction of what the Warner Bros. blockbuster will amass over the next three days. Check EW’s Nov. 18–20 weekend box office projections below.

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $80 million

Instead of looking to the original, wildly successful Harry Potter films as a barometer for which to gauge Fantastic Beasts’ potential success, it’s perhaps wiser to take a gander at the box office numbers of Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit trilogy. Like the trio of Hobbit movies — the first of which grossed $84.6 million upon its 2012 debut, nine years after The Return of the King launched in 2003 — Fantastic Beasts takes place in the same cinematic universe as the film series upon which it’s based, though it’s not a part of its source material’s core storyline. Instead, the film follows the adventures of Newt Scamander (Redmayne), who wrote the fictional book that bears the film’s namesake and is required reading for all first-year Hogwarts students.

2. Heroes Forever: The New Beginning - $45 million

It's vow will come to an end after it's humongous' opening weekend last weekend with $158.4 million from 4,180 theaters, which is 2016's third biggest opener yet behind Captain America: Civil War ($179 million) and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166 million). It will be dipping about 65-70 percent with $40-45 million, and should be bringing it's total pass the $230 million mark. This is a better drop than Jane Hoop Elementary: The Final Rush - Part 2 did back in 2011 after earning $165.4 million in it's opening weekend, than it suffered a 77 percent drop in it's second weekend with only $42.1 million.

3. Trolls - $21 million

After holding strong over its sophomore weekend (it fell a mere 25 percent from its $46.6 million opening), Fox’s animated Trolls will take a bigger tumble during week No. 3, but could still top last week’s champion Doctor Strange if that film follows the pattern of descent laid out by its Marvel forerunners. Look for Trolls to finish in the $20-$25 million range this weekend.

4. Doctor Strange - $20 million

The Sorcerer Supreme will continue to do its box office magic in theaters, helping Disney lift its annual domestic (and worldwide) haul to record levels. The Marvel flick should amass around $20 million for a third weekend dip in the 50-60 percent range — consistent with Doctor Strange’s studio brethren Captain America: Civil War (54.7 percent) and Thor: The Dark World (61.2 percent) across the same frame.

5. Arrival - $13 million

Rounding the top five will be Arrival. Sure, it’s $24 million opening hit a high note among Paramount’s recent string of underperformers (Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Ben-Hur, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows), but the $47 million awards-bound sci-fi drama suffered from a major identity crisis across the studio’s marketing campaign. The movie sold to audiences was a tense thriller; what they got, however, was a beautiful, subtle meditation on life, and polled moviegoers weren’t happy with the jarring contrast, giving the film a middling B grade on CinemaScore — a stark left turn from the rave reviews the film has received since September, when it premiered at the Venice Film Festival before traveling the circuit from Telluride to Toronto.

Though star Amy Adams is bound to pick up a few major nominations for her performance in the Denis Villeneuve-directed film this awards season, the movie might face a major setback during its second go-round at the weekend box office, as the studio’s advertising could come back to bite it in the end. Still, Arrival is pulling in decent numbers throughout the week (it grossed $1.9 million on Monday, $2.4 million on Tuesday, and $1.7 million on Wednesday), which is a healthy sign heading into the weekend.