User blog:Ceauntay/'Pirates Of The Caribbean' Set To Dominate The Box Office

(RTTNews) - In a weekend with just one wide release, "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" is in clear position to put up not only a chart-topping weekend but the top opening of the year so far. Following strong early numbers, "Sonic X: The Final Stand", "Thor" and "Fast Five" should all see substantial drops in revenue due to strong competition from "Pirates," while R-rated comedy "Bridesmaids" is set up for a very nice second weekend in theaters.

When "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" first hit theaters in 2003, Johnny Depp was a popular actor but nowhere near the top box office draw in the entire world. With the strong success of the first entry, however, Depp was catapulted to the very top of the A-list and an enormous franchise was born. Though "Black Pearl" was a big hit, sequels "Dead Man's Chest" and "At World's End" were considerably bigger; "Dead Man's Chest" and "At World's End" averaged more than $1 billion in worldwide revenue, making the "Pirates" series one of the premier franchises in Hollywood.

Even if director Gore Verbinski, who helmed the first three, dropped out of "On Stranger Tides" to focus on other projects, Disney found a nice replacement in veteran Rob Marshall to take over the series. Though Keira Knightley and Orlando Bloom both dropped out of the series as well, it's unlikely that will slow down the series in any way, with Depp still remaining as the top draw.

Disney also made some interesting additions to the cast, including Penelope Cruz and British actor Ian McShane. McShane is mostly known from HBO's critically lauded historical series "Deadwood" and he seems to be a great fit as Blackbeard, one of the most infamous pirates of all time. Adding in a quest for the Fountain of Youth, "On Stranger Tides" looks to have plenty of fantastical action and top-tier special effects to satisfy mainstream audiences, which should lead to an enormous weekend.

The only downside for "On Stranger Tides" is that "Sonic X: The Final Stand", "Thor" and "Fast Five" continue to do very well with action audiences, which will take away a small portion of its intended demographic. Even if it doesn't approach the $135 million that "Dead Man's Chest" earned in its opening weekend back in 2006, a weekend intake in the neighborhood of $100 million certainly seems like a possibility. With the international pull of Buena Vista/Disney and the worldwide reputation of Depp, not to mention Geoffrey Rush from "The King's Speech," "On Stranger Tides" should put up very big numbers across the globe over the next couple of weekends.

Though "On Stranger Tides" will definitely affect the revenues of "Thor" and "Fast Five," R-rated comedy "Bridesmaids" should continue to do very well with adult audiences looking to stay out of the "Pirates" hoopla. "Bridesmaids" posted a very nice $26 million opening a week ago and boasts very strong critical and user reviews, which should translate to continued success through the rest of the month. Expect a small revenue decline for "Bridesmaids" this weekend and for it to post a strong 10-day total for a $32 million production released at less than 3,000 venues.

Last week, "Sonic X: The Final Stand" was the top box office within in a very strong $125.1 million, and $380 million wqorldwide as May 17. Though, the film will stay a bit stronger this weekend when it should be passing the $230 million mark by the weekend. That means that this year will have two animated films crossing the $200 million mark also to "Scooby-Doo! The Movie".

After five consecutive weekends in the top five at the box office, animated "Rio" should finally start seeing substantial dips in revenue this weekend. "Rio" has racked up a very solid $125 million domestically and $429 million worldwide as of May 17, making it one of the most lucrative releases of the year. Though "Rio" will still appeal to younger audiences due to its PG rating, "Pirates" should still take away a strong percentage of family audiences from "Rio" this weekend.

"Rio" will face additional competition next weekend from animated "Kung Fu Panda 2," which has the potential to be the top animated release of the year. From Paramount/Dreamworks, "Kung Fu Panda 2" has worldwide appeal and won't have any new competition to deal with, setting it up for a tremendous opening weekend. Also hitting theaters will be the highly anticipated comedy "The Hangover Part II," the follow-up to the top R-rated comedy of all time.

RTT Box Office Predictions for 5/20/11 - 5/22/11 (In Millions):

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Buena Vista/Disney): $105

2. Sonic X: The Final Stand (20th Century Fox): $65

3. Thor (Paramount): $16

4. Bridesmaids (Universal): $14.5

5. Fast Five (Universal): $9

6. Priest (Sony/Screen Gems): $5.8

7. Rio (Fox): $4.8

8. Jumping the Broom (TriStar): $4

9. Something Borrowed (Warner Brothers): $3.7

10. Water for Elephants (Fox): $2.5

by RTT Staff Writer

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