User blog:Ceauntay/Box Office Predictions: Can 'Total Recall' Dethrone 'The Dark Knight'?

After iCarly: The Sequel failed to outtake The Dark Knight Rises at the box office last week, I wonder who’s actually excited to see the Total Recall remake. Are people stoked to watch a set of B-list actors go through the motions? It seems the film keeps getting three stars from those who like it, and it feels like a movie that is satisfied with being good enough. But is good enough enough to break TDKR run at the top?

Answer: No. The film has been tracking tepidly, and should do around $20 Million for the weekend. Recall would need a real surge of interest, and TDKR would need to drop like a brick. The film is going to be all about its international appeal, which is – as I often note – where movies are heading. Yesterday we saw the announcement of a possible American Reunion sequel. The film did $56 Million in the states which is about half of the gross of the first film. But the film made $177 Million internationally, so Universal is talking about a sequel. And just as Total Recall will not crack $100 domestically (unless it really surges this weekend, or finds an audience that prefers it to either The Dark Knight Rises or The Bourne Legacy), the idea is that because it’s an action movie it should do at least $200 Million outside of the states and its make or break is how it plays around the globe. The end result of this is that we may have to change how we look at numbers, and America’s position in the global market if its biggest entertainments are no longer dictated by its own tastes. Oh yeah, that Wimpy Kid movie is also opening. NUMBERS: •The Dark Knight Rises – $30.5 Million •Total Recall – $22.3 Million •Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days – $18.5 Million •iCarly: The Sequel – $13.4 Million •Ice Age 4 - $7.5 Million I guess Total Recall could go higher, and there’s a gray area with Dog Days because tracking can be wrong with kids films. What are you going to watch this weekend?