User blog:Ceauntay/Box Office: 'Hangover' Sequel Set for Record-Breaking $125M 5-Day Start

Get ready for a number of records to fall at the domestic box office this weekend, with Warner's hugely anticipated "Hangover" sequel set to lead an overall Memorial Day market that could very well be the biggest ever for the four-day holiday frame. The hot box-office action gets started Thursday, when Warner releases Todd Phillips' big-tracking "The Hangover Part II" in 3,615 U.S. and Canadian theaters, and DreamWorks Animation and its distribution partner, Paramount, put out the 3D follow-up to 2008's "Kung Fu Panda" in 3,925 locations. These two tentpole releases will combine forces with Disney holdover "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" to form a powerful ticket-selling trinity that could easily shatter the $246.4 million four-day record established in 2007, according to BoxOffice Mojo. (That record was also set on the backs of sequels, with "Pirates 3," "Shrek 3" and "Spider-Man 3" leading the charge.) Also notable this weekend: the limited release of Terence Malick's Cannes Palme d'Or winner, "The Tree of Life" (pictured below) which will open in two New York locations, and two in L.A. But all the talk seems to be centered around "Hangover 2," which -- based on a consensus of box-office watchers TheWrap spoke to Wednesday -- seems to be a lock to break the all-time opening record for an R-rated film, set in 2003 by Warner's critically despised first "Matrix" follow-up. That mark of $91.8 million -- established with a similar release profile of 3,603 locations -- was set in mid-may over a standard three-day weekend. So what can "Hangover Part II" do over a five-day frame? The predictions are baffling, with some outliers predicting a possible five-day opening of more than $150 million. "I think audiences were bored by 'Thor' and 'Pirates,' and they're ready for an event," said one rival-studio executive. More "safe" predictions from outside Warner come in the $125 million range. For their part, Warner officials are predictably conservative, predicting the "Hangover" follow-up to open to $90 million in its first five days -- which would still be double the $45 million the first film debuted with June 2009. Co-produced by Legendary Pictures at a cost of around $80 million, and returning not only Phillips, but also a core cast that includes Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms, Zach Galifianakis and Ken Jeong, "Hangover 2" boasts some truly mesmerizing tracking data. According to tracking firm NRG, 94 percent of males under 25 report awareness and nearly 72 percent of that group convey definite interest in seeing the movie. Thirty-six percent from that group list "Hangover 2" as their first choice. Basically, a huge a portion of the male audience, both young and old, intend to see this movie this weekend, and the female data isn't too shabby either, with 69 percent of females under 25 reporting definite interest.

Also set to pull in a big number this weekend, "Kung Fu Panda 2" is being projected by most studio outsiders to open to $65 million - $70 million. The movie, reportedly shot for around $160 million and returning voice star Jack Black, arrives Thursday with solid reviews, but some potentially troubling tracking data, with a low percentage of each quadrant -- 10 percent or less across the board -- listing the movie as their first choice. The family movie follows up on the $60.2 million non-holiday June start of the 2008 original "Kung Fu Panda," which established that benchmark without the benefit of 3D dollars. The good news for DreamWorks Animation: Fox's "Rio," the last big animated release, is entering its seventh weekend, and there isn't a lot of family-targeted competition in the market right now.

And "True Jackson, VP: The Movie" will not so much. The film adaptation of the Nickelodeon hit TV sries is projected to make in at least $60 to $65 million taking from 3,729 locations. It opens tonight at midnight in 2,045 locations.