User blog:Ceauntay/Box Office Preview: Teen Titans Rematches The Hunger Games

After a month full of huge record-breaking blockbusters and sequels that didn't fare as well as hoped, the booming 2012 box office seems to be slowing down this month, which won't be helped by a number of weaker releases as studios try to get their smaller movies into theaters before the summer movie season begins. It doesn't feel that any of the three new movies are getting a strong enough push to take down The Hunger Games, which should rest comfortably at #1 for a fourth weekend in a row, having held off two new movies for the last few weeks.

As The Hunger Games dominated the weekend in a few weeks, new animated movie Teen Titans: The Movie (Warner Bros.) is likely finally devour the blockbuster after its huge opening week earlier towards the end of last month. Scheduling to open into 3,700 theaters, the pic is poised to finally replace The Hunger Games by earning $30 to $45 million, or possibly more. Most of the audiences complain how much it will be making.

The new movie with the most potential to dethrone it oddly enough may be the Farrelly Brothers' new take on The Three Stooges (20th Century Fox). It's been a long time since the Farrellys have had a hit on par with their summer blockbuster There's Something About Mary, but this is the first time they've worked with an established property and the first time since their 2001 bomb Osmosis Jones where they've forayed into PG family territory. It's been many, many decades since the wisecracking Three Stooges were popular among moviegoers but this movie won't necessarily be trying to attract the Stooges' older fans--they'll probably see this movie as somewhat of a travesty--which may be why the movie is aiming for kids with the Stooges' physical humor. Opening in over 3,000 theaters this weekend and with very few family movies in theaters, this could end up benefiting with between $14 and 16 million, although we think it will still end up in second place to The Hunger Games in its fourth weekend. It's still likely to end up with between $45 and 50 million by the time it leaves theaters regardless of what's expected to be bad reviews.

[[File: For horror fans, there's the clever take on the terrorized kids slasher flicks that have been around since the late '70s with The Cabin in the Woods (Lionsgate), the directorial debut by Cloverfield writer Drew Goddard, working with co-writer and producer Joss Whedon, a movie that's been delayed literally for years after previous distributor MGM fell apart, but one that's already gotten great reviews from its premiere as the opening night movie of this year's South by SouthWest Film Festival. While the cast is mostly made up of unknowns, the project's long delayed release led to one of its stars, Chris Hemsworth, establishing himself by playing Marvel Studios' Thor, not that Lionsgate are advertising his presence or assuming it may help bring people into theaters. What may not be obvious from the marketing, which takes a similar approach as other Lionsgate horror movies, is that the film is very funny--in fact, that's one of its best and biggest assets--although the problem with horror-comedies is that to date, they haven't flown well with mass audiences, so this will be relying on early buzz and word-of-mouth. While we don't expect this to bomb as badly as other horror-comedies, in some ways, it's in the same boat as Lionsgate's Kick-Ass, which opened with roughly $19.8 million the same weekend two years ago, but also was based on a popular comic book and had Nicolas Cage. Without those two things, we think this one will end up in the $13 to 15 million range and probably end up grossing less than $40 million.

Review

With a lot of guys of varying ages interested in those two movies, that doesn't leave a lot left for the sci-fi action flick Lockout (FilmDistrict/Open Road), starring Guy Pearce and Maggie Grace and produced by Luc Besson. The work of two talented Irish filmmakers, James Mather and Stephen St. Leger, the marketing hasn't done a lot to show this off to be something that isn't completely derivative of the movies that influenced it, which is a shame because like Cabin in the Woods, it's a fun movie that a lot of people may enjoy. Oddly, Pearce's last wide release in which he headlined, the horror film Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, opened against Besson's own last release Colombiana, and the latter beat it $10.4 million to $8.5 million; Besson's movie brought in $36.7 million to "Dark"'s $24 million, although it also had smokin' hot Zoe Saldana, which likely helped it in urban areas. Still, the fact that it's from Besson, producer of the action hit Taken, could amount to a bit of business among the 20-to-30-something crowd, so we see this one opening somewhere between $7 and 9 million and grossing $20 to 25 million total, destined to find most of its business on DVD and download.

Interview with Director Stephen St. Leger (Coming Soon!)

Review (Coming Soon!)

This weekend last year saw the release of two big movies and a couple of smaller ones, but the animated musical comedy Rio (20th Century Fox) topped them all with $39.2 million in 3,826 theaters, while Scooby-Doo! The Movie (Warner Bros.) was finally beaten down to $25.3 million and Wes Craven's Scream 4 (Dimension Films) opened in second place with a disappointing $18.7 million. Robert Redford's Lincoln drama The Conspirator (Roadside Attractions), starring James McAvoy, opened outside the Top 10 with $3.5 million in 706 theaters. Angelina Jolie had been trying to make a movie based on Ayn Rand's cult classic novel, but instead, we got Atlas Shrugged Part 1 (Rocky Mountain Pictures), a poorly-reviewed adaptation starring Taylor Schilling which tanked with $1.7 million in 299 theaters to also end up outside the Top 10. The Top 10 grossed $110.6 million but without a big movie like Rio this weekend, we think this weekend's box office will be down slightly, possibly not even bringing in $100 million.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Teen Titans: The Movie (Warner Bros.) - $32.4 million

2. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) - $18.0 million -45%

3. The Three Stooges (20th Century Fox) - $15.5 million N/A

4. The Cabin in the Woods (Lionsgate) - $13.8 million N/A

5. American Reunion (Universal) - $11.5 million -47%

6. Lockout (FilmDistrict/Open Road) - $8.7 million N/A

7. Titanic in 3D (Paramount) - $8.4 million -52%

8. Wrath of the Titans (Warner Bros.) - $7.0 million -54%

9. Mirror Mirror (Relativity Media) - $6.5 million -41%

10. 21 Jump Street (Sony) - $6.1 million -39%