User blog:Ceauntay/'Teen Titans 2' Could Blow Up April Opening Weekend Record

This week is looking at lot like last week, only difference is the overall for the top twelve is going to show about a 45% dip compared to last weekend as three familiar titles, led by The Fate of the Furious, will lead the pack. But Teen Titans 2 will have the ultimate lead with it's monster opening weekend playing in 4,128 theaters, including 3,695 3D theaters, and 1,101 Imax screens, which is the third film to open in more than 1,000 Imax screens. Otherwise, four other new releases will look to have some sort of an impact on the overall weekend box office, though the widest of the lot is WB's Unforgettable, which is only debuting in 2,417 theaters. Otherwise, Open Road's The Promise is opening in just over 2,250 theaters while Born in China and Phoenix Forgotten open in just over 1,500 theaters each while A24's Free Fire theater total just barely tops one thousand.

Last week, Fast 8 failed to crack $100 million on it's opening weekend. Though, it estimates shows that it earned $100 million. But the second installment in a planned live action Teen Titans trilogy will remain as the second film of 2017 to open at $100 million in its opening weekend, projecting at least $148 million. If so, it would a new April opening weekend record, which is previously held by Furious 7 ($147 million opening) in 2015.

Though Teen Titans 2 will have a lower opening weekend compared to Teen Titans's $172 million opening weekend back in summer 2015, it will currently bow down as 2017's second biggest opening weekend ever just behind Beauty and the Beast's at $174.7 million a month ago.

Overseas, Teen Titans 2 is expecting to open anywhere between $200 million to $250 million internationally, pushing it global total between $350 million to $400 million, when playing in over 38 foreign markets. Teen Titans 2 currently scores a decent 71% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a awesome A- rating CinemaScore.

Fate, the eighth installment in the Fast and the Furious franchise zoomed to an international and worldwide opening weekend record last weekend, it wasn't quite able to finish over $100 million for its domestic opening weekend. By comparison, the film's $98.8 million opening is the second largest in the franchise and just a shade over the $97.4 million opening for 2013's Fast & Furious 6. It is worth noting, however, that Fast 6 debuted over Memorial Day weekend, which is why you'll notice Fast 8 is currently pacing behind the sixth installment in our head-to-head showdown. Taking that into consideration, it will be interesting to see just how "fast" Fate falls.

Last year, Furious 7 dipped 59.5% after its blistering $147.2 million debut; Fast 6 suffered a larger drop for obvious reasons, dipping 64% in its second frame; Fast Five fell 62.4% in its sophomore session; and Fast and Furious dipped just under 62%. Looking at the numbers, a 62-64% drop seems inevitable, with potential to hold on a bit better if only as a result of a lack of direct competition and the week's new releases hardly making a big push for eyeballs. That said, we're anticipating a drop right around 64% and a second weekend around $35.5 million, which will be more than enough to take second place this weekend.

Internationally, Fate of the Furious cracked the top 100 worldwide chart yesterday as its international cume now stands at $565.1 million as its worldwide total has already topped $680 million. The film opens in Serbia today, Poland and Romania tomorrow followed by Japan next weekend.

Third and fourth place are likely to also carry over from last week with Fox's The Boss Baby and Disney's Beauty and the Beast looking to finish with $9.7 million and $8.4 million respectively over the weekend. There may, however be room for a shake up should WB's Unforgettable over perform.

Rounding the top five will be Unforgettable is the feature directorial debut of long-time producer Denise Di Novi (Batman Returns, Crazy, Stupid, Love.), stars Rosario Dawson and Katherine Heigl and was made on a slim, $12 million budget. The thriller is debuting in 2,417 theaters and industry estimates have the film targeting a $7 million opening, which appears to be a safe estimation based on what we're looking at. Direct similarities in the $7 million range are tough to find as films such as last year's When the Bough Breaks and The Boy Next Door have opened with double that estimate, and IMDb page view data at the same point in the release cycle tends to reflect that comparison... almost...

While we aren't holding our breath, Unforgettable is pacing well behind the likes of The Boy Next Door as well as behind 2013's Halle Berry starrer The Call at the same point in the release cycle, but it is pacing ahead of When the Bough Breaks, though that September 2016 opener appears to be more noise than any kind of real signal. That said, keep that stat in your back pocket as well as the fact the average opening weekend for a similar feature* opening in this many theaters is $11.4 million, which at this point seems outside of this film's reach, but is worth noting. For our forecast, however, we're anticipating an opening over the industry estimate, right around $8.2 million for the three-day.

Outside the top five will be Disneynature's latest offering, Born in China, opening in 1,508 theaters with industry estimates looking for an opening in the $4-5 million range, similar to the past openings for Monkey Kingdom ($4.6m) and Bears ($4.8m). While those are obvious comparisons, it's not obvious the film will perform at the same level. IMDb page view data shows Born in China outpacing both films at the same point in the release cycle as interest has increased over the last ten days by comparison. This doesn't have us going too crazy with our expectation, but a $5.5+ million opening doesn't seem unreasonable based on what we're seeing.

Also opening this weekend is Gifted, which is expanding further this weekend as Fox Searchlight adds 840 theaters, resulting in a total of 1,986 locations. It's never easy to predict just how well a film will do in instances such as these, but we're going with a strong, and perhaps slightly-too-aggressive, $3.85 million prediction thanks in large part to a healthy "A" CinemaScore last weekend.

Next we'll look at another one of the week's new releases, that being Open Road's The Promise, which is debuting in 2,251 theaters and arrives with relatively weak word of mouth even before the film hits domestic theaters. The Metacritic score for the film is currently a 46, a number that has held relatively steady following its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival back in September 2016. Since then the film, which stars Oscar Isaac, Charlotte Le Bon and Christian Bale, has a 5.4/10 rating on IMDb with a strong sampling of 126,387 votes.

That being the case, Open Road seems to have done a decent job getting the word out on The Promise as IMDb page view data show the film outperforming all of this weekend's new releases and while that doesn't necessarily tell us too much, it does suggest a comparison to historical averages, negative or positive, for similar releases are in play. That said, and given data such as the Metacritic score and IMDb rating, we can't say we have high hopes as we anticipate an opening weekend around $3.2 million.

Rounding out the top ten we come to Bleecker's expansion of The Lost City of Z into 610 theaters. The problem this film faces is the fact it's confronted with competition from both Gifted and The Promise and all three may eat into each other's profits. That being said, Lost City of Z has been well reviewed (78 on Metacritic) and the decision from Bleecker to slow play this one, as it opened in only four theaters last weekend, may prove to be to its benefit while Open Road's Promise appears to have a shelf life of just a few days. All told, we're anticipating a weekend for City of Z around $2.1 million. Now whether or not that's enough to hang on to a spot in the top ten is tough to say as the weekend has two other new wide releases to consider.

First we'll look at Cinelou's sci-fi/horror Phoenix Forgotten. The big sell here is Ridley Scott as a producer, but we all saw how that aided his son's film Morgan last year when it opened with $2 million from 2,020 locations and 2014's Before I Go To Sleep, which opened with $1.8 million from 1,902 theaters. As for Phoenix Forgotten, it's set to debut in 1,588 theaters and we aren't seeing many signals to suggest it will separate itself from such comparisons. In fact, at the same point in the release cycle Phoenix is pacing similarly to Before I Go to Sleep and Shut In, while behind the likes of Morgan and The Disappointments Room. As a result, a $2 million opening seems like the best one this one can look forward to unless Cinelou has been doing some targeted marketing we aren't noticing, in which case we'd have something to talk about come Sunday morning.

Finally, A24's release of Free Fire is a tough one to nail down, and the hard R comedy/action feature would probably best be compared to the likes of Shoot 'Em Up and Smokin' Aces, but a more recent comparison to the likes of Hardcore Henry is a bit more interesting. Now while it's pacing well behind Hardcore when looking at IMDb page view data at the same point in the release cycle, it could prove to be an interesting comp once all is said and done given the difference in release platforms for the two features.

Free Fire has seen significant growth on IMDb's MovieMeter since playing the South by Southwest Film Festival in mid-March, whether the growth in awareness is enough to push its opening weekend over $2 million remains to be seen as it opens in just 1,070 theaters. As for that Hardcore Henry comp, it could prove most interesting as the argument could easily be made that STX simply went too wide with Hardcore upon release, and A24's moderate release approach just might be the best way to stoke word of mouth and deliver a longer overall run.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.


 * 1) Teen Titans 2 (4,128 theaters) - $149.1 M
 * 2) The Fate of the Furious (4,329 theaters) - $35.7 M
 * 3) The Boss Baby (3,697 theaters) - $9.7 M
 * 4) Beauty and the Beast (3,242 theaters) - $8.4 M
 * 5) Unforgettable (2,417 theaters) - $8.2 M
 * 6) Born in China (1,508 theaters) - $5.8 M
 * 7) Smurfs: The Lost Village (2,737 theaters) - $3.9 M
 * 8) Gifted (1,986 theaters) - $3.8 M
 * 9) Going in Style (3,038 theaters) - $3.8 M
 * 10) The Promise (2,251 theaters) - $3.2 M