User blog:Ceauntay/Holiday 2013 Forecast

While we're still seven weeks away from Christmas, what's traditionally known as the "holiday" box office season officially kicked off on the first weekend of November. This also mean it's time for Box Office Mojo's annual holiday movie forecast, which predicts the domestic box office for some of the biggest titles of the season.

Anticipated sequels Sonic X: The Final Chapter - Part 1, Thor: The Dark World, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should dominate the season—combined, these three will likely earn over $800 million. After that, Disney Animation's Frozen and long-awaited comedy sequel Anchorman: The Legend Continues should also do strong business. Other serious contenders include late year awards contenders American Hustle, Saving Mr. Banks and The Wolf of Wall Street, among others.

Listed below are the movies we think will be the Top 12, with analysis and a specific domestic forecast. On the next page, the rest of the nationwide titles (sans forecast) will be discussed.

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Nov. 22): In March 2012, The Hunger Games shocked the world when it opened to an incredible $152.5 million, which remains an unprecedented start for a non-sequel. The movie held well, and ultimately closed with an incredible $408 million (back then, it ranked 11th all-time). In the year-and-a-half since then, the fanbase has only grown in size—many who enjoyed the movie checked out the book series, while those who missed the movie in theaters caught it at home.

All of this begs the question: can Catching Fire match or exceed its predecessor? With a bigger fanbase, more aggressive marketing and a prime holiday release date, the gut reaction is "absolutely." If it did wind up higher, though, it would be defying historical trends. At the domestic box office, only 22 movies have earned over $350 million in their initial run. Of those 22, eight have direct sequels, and all eight of those sequels earned less than their predecessor. The point here is that, when a movie's initial audience is at this incredible level, it's extremely difficult to expand on that with the sequel.

Regardless, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire will be the highest-grossing movie of the season with at least $335 million, which will make this another major success for distributor Lionsgate. Forecast: $400 million

2. Sonic X: The Final Chapter - Part 1 (Nov. 15): The latest Sonic installment, Shadow the Hedgehog, which is a spin-off of the franchise but still counts as a sequel, grossed a decent $283 million last summer, although lower than the previous franchise's best, 2011's Sonic X: The Final Stand, which made $300 million. The movie should even do some massive business when it opened in theaters soon, and thus there is no hope rather or not it should outpass Shrek 2 as the highest-grossing animated film in the United States ever, which earned $441 million in 2004. This will be the first Sonic the Hedgehog film to be released on a holiday. There is also no telling if it should also pass the $1 billion mark, which will be the second animated film, after Toy Story 3, to pass the $1 billion mark. Thus Part 2, which is due out in July 4, 2014, should have a higher expectation, and have a far bigger opening weekend than Part 1 did. Forecast: $295 million

3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Dec. 13): The first Hobbit earned a very strong $303 million last year, though anecdotal evidence suggests that many Lord of the Rings fans weren't thrilled with the movie. Historically, when an anticipated movie receives lukewarm audience reactions, its sequel suffers at the box office. Warner Bros. is working overtime to try to keep too many fans from bailing: the marketing material emphasizes Lord of the Rings favorites Gandalf and Legolas, and the prospect of finally seeing the dragon Smaug should also help. Forecast: $230 million

3. Thor: The Dark World (Nov. 8): A lot is riding on Thor: The Dark World; it's the second entry in Phase 2 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but the first one outside of the all-star Iron Man franchise. Thanks to goodwill from The Avengers, Iron Man 3 increased 31 percent over Iron Man 2—if Thor 2 has a similar bump over the first Thor ($181 million), it will earn $237 million. Unfortunately, Thor 2 doesn't add 3D (the first one was in 3D as well) and the marketing hasn't been quite as strong as the material for Iron Man 3. Still, a total north of $200 million is likely, and big foreign grosses (over $400 million) should be expected as well. Forecast: $220 million

4. Frozen (Nov. 27): Disney Animation is back on Thanksgiving weekend for the first time since 2010, when Tangled opened strong on its way to just over $200 million. Frozen's story isn't as immediately interesting, and marketing has yet to sell this to boys the way Tangled did. Still, this is the latest holiday season in which the studios have neglected to schedule compelling content for families in December. As a result, Frozen should play well all the way through Christmas, and could end up matching Wreck-It Ralph ($189.4 million). Forecast: $185 million

5. Anchorman: The Legend Continues (Dec. 20): In 2004, the original Anchorman earned a solid $85.3 million in theaters. In the years since, though, it's become a massive hit on video and TV, and Paramount and the filmmakers are finally releasing a sequel over nine years later. The opportunity to spend more time with Ron Burgundy and company is an enticing one, and the marketing material has does a nice job of moving the story forward and setting up some new gags. While Anchorman 2 probably won't get the "Austin Powers bump," it's hard to imagine it earns less than $150 million. Forecast: $165 million

6. Saving Mr. Banks (Dec. 13 limited, Dec. 20 nationwide): On the surface, the story of how Walt Disney (Tom Hanks) convinced E.L. Travers (Emma Thompson) to make the movie Mary Poppins sounds like the kind of inside baseball fare that audiences aren't going to show much interest in. Trailers make Saving Mr. Banks seem accessible, though, and early word is that it's a crowd-pleaser. The movie appears to have something for people of any age, which could make it the de facto choice for family audiences this season. Forecast: $130 million

7. The Wolf of Wall Street (Dec. 25): Originally scheduled for Nov. 15, The Wolf of Wall Street recently moved back to Christmas Day to give director Martin Scorsese more time to edit the movie. All of the marketing has been strong so far, and the material is right in the wheelhouses of Scorsese (Goodfellas) and star Leonardo DiCaprio. Wolf does appear to have a mean, satirical edge to it, which can be a turn-off for holiday audiences; still, it has enough obvious advantages that it should be a safe bet to earn over $100 million. Forecast: $125 million

8. American Hustle (Dec. 13 limited, Dec. 18 nationwide): Director David O. Russell has had a critical and commercial resurgence in the past few years with The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook, which earned $93.6 million and $132.1 million, respectively, and won three acting Oscars. For American Hustle, Russell has brought a dream team together from those two casts (Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence), and put all of them in some insane 70s costumes and hairdos. While previews are light on story, they do give off a fun/cool vibe that aligns nicely with Russell's brand. If the movie turns out to actually be good—and there are rumblings that it is—this could turn out to be a huge hit with adult audiences. Forecast: $120 million

9. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Dec. 25): Blending fantasy and reality in one man's journey of self-discovery, Walter Mitty's previews have stood out from the pack in recent months. It also helps that star Ben Stiller has found a lot of success around the holidays, and that this is Kristen Wiig's first major studio role since Bridesmaids. Word from initial screenings is only so-so, though, and it's unclear if this is for families (it's rated "PG") or for adults (it appears to have some heavy elements). Forecast: $95 million

10. Grudge Match (Dec. 25): Stars Robert DeNiro and Sylvester Stallone have struggled a bit at the box office this year, though there are reasons to expect Grudge Match to reverse this. The opportunity to see the actors behind Jake LaMotta and Rocky Balboa square off in the boxing ring is an appealing one, and the comedic elements will make this an easy choice. It doesn't hurt that these two are getting support from Kevin Hart, who has amassed a devoted fan base in recent years. Forecast: $80 million

11. Ender's Game (Nov. 1): This is cheating, of course, since Ender's Game already opened to $27 million this weekend. With tough competition from Thor: The Dark World and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, it's likely that the adaptation burns out quickly and ends up in the same range as similar titles Eragon ($75 million) and The Golden Compass ($70.1 million). Forecast: $75 million

12. Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas (Dec. 13): Setting a Madea movie at Christmas is a stroke of genius—not only does it give Madea a chance to dress up as Santa, but it also allows themes of family and community to be more seemlessly integrated with the story. Prolific writer/director/actor Tyler Perry's three highest-grossing movies all feature the wise-cracking Madea, and it's likely that A Madea Christmas follows suit. Forecast: $70 million

Other Releases

Free Birds (Nov. 1): The first animated movie from Relativity Media may hold well, though its opening weekend ($15.8 million) was too low to put it in serious consideration for a spot in the Top 12. Ultimately, it should close with around $60 million.

Last Vegas (Nov. 1): With its strong appeal among older audiences, Last Vegas will likely have a long run. Still, coming off a $16.3 million opening, that puts it on pace for a final tally of $60 million or so at best.

About Time (Nov. 1 limited, Nov. 8 nationwide): This time travel romance is from the director of Love Actually, which is the major selling point of Universal's marketing. Unfortunately, it now looks like this is the type of modest British comedy that will find a much bigger audience on home video and TV than it will in theaters.

The Best Man Holiday (Nov. 15): The original Best Man earned $34.1 million in 1999; adjusted for inflation, that's $54 million, which is likely the high point for this Christmas-centric sequel.

Delivery Man (Nov. 22): Vince Vaughn has appeared in a string of box office disappointments over the past few years—The Internship, The Watch and The Dilemma all earned less than $50 million domestically. While Delivery Man's premise may interest some, the movie's performance does hinge largely on Vaughn's brand, and it's hard to imagine it does much than those previous movies.

Black Nativity (Nov. 27): This musical tells the story of the nativity with an entirely black cast, and will likely be a strong option with urban Christian audiences over the holidays. That's a very specific audience, though, and that fact will likely keep the movie from really breaking out.

Homefront (Nov. 27): Jason Statham's solo outings never had a high ceiling, but recent outings like Safe ($17.1 million) and Parker ($17.6 million) have done particularly weak business. Even with James Franco and an overtly patriotic spin, it's unlikely that this cracks $30 million.

Oldboy (Nov. 27): Spike Lee's remake of the cult classic Korean movie is certainly intriguing, though it's likely to be too violent for Thanksgiving audiences. Add in direct competition from Homefront, and it's unlikely this comes anywhere close to the Top 12.

Out of the Furnace (Dec. 6): The first weekend of December is historically one of the slowest of the year, and delivers some of the weakest openings. It doesn't help that Out of the Furnace shares an audience with Oldboy and Homefront, and also that fans of Christian Bale will likely be holding out to see him in American Hustle.

Inside Llewyn Davis (Dec. 6 limited, Dec. 20 expansion): The Coen Bros. are coming off their biggest hit ever (True Grit) and aren't very far removed from their multiple Oscar wins for No Country for Old Men. Even with great reviews, a strong cast and a well-timed folk music soundtrack, it still feels like Inside Llewyn Davis is destined to be one of their lower-grossing outings. It is absolutely going to earn more than A Serious Man ($9.2 million), though it would be surprising if it matched O Brother, Where Art Thou? ($45.5 million).

Walking with Dinosaurs (Dec. 20): This animated movie resembles a nature documentary—if, you know, dinosaurs walked the earth—though it is apparently a narrative feature with voice actors. It should do some solid business among families with younger children, though in a highly-competitive season this is the kind of movie that can get lost in the pack.

Her (Dec. 20 limited, Jan. 10 nationwide): Spike Jonze's vision of romance in the future should intrigue some arthouse audiences, though it's unlikely to reach a broader audience during its theatrical run.

47 Ronin (Dec. 25): As World War Z proved this Summer, general audiences don't really care about troubled productions if the movie looks appealing. And Universal did put together a solid second trailer for 47 Ronin which made it look like a cross between Lord of the Rings and a Kurosawa movie. Still, The Hobbit will likely be the primary choice for fantasy audiences this season, which will keep 47 Ronin from making much of an impact. It won't be a total loser, though, as its foreign potential is quite high ($200 million seems like a safe bet).

Believe (Dec. 25): Justin Bieber's first documentary, 2011's Never Say Never, earned a very impressive $73 million. That had the advantage of 3D ticket pricing, and came out at the height of Bieber's popularity, so it would be shocking if Believe came anywhere close to that total.

Labor Day (Dec. 25 limited, Jan. 31 nationwide): Director Jason Reitman has two strong box office hits under his belt (Juno and Up in the Air), though Young Adult's poor box office suggests his name alone isn't enough to draw crowds. Labor Day should have some appeal among adult audiences, though its ultimate fate is likely dependent on whether or not it gets any serious awards attention.

Lone Survivor (Dec. 27 limited, Jan. 10 nationwide): This true military story, set during the war in Afghanistan, is likely hoping to be this year's Black Hawk Down or Zero Dark Thirty. It doesn't look quite as distinct as either of those, though, and at best it will probably wind up earning about as much as Act of Valor ($70 million).

A handful of other intriguing movies are opening in limited release during the season, including Dallas Buyers Club (Nov. 1), The Book Thief (Nov. 8), Nebraska (Nov. 15), Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (Nov. 29) and August: Osage County (Dec. 25). The performance of these movies is largely dependent on how hard the studios push them—which is unclear right now—and whether or not they receive serious awards consideration.

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