User blog:Ceauntay/'X-Men' Prequel Set For Big Weekend At The Box Office

(RTTNews) - With "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" finally starting to slow down, "X-Men: First Class" is ready to take over as the number one action draw and will likely finish as the top movie of the weekend. "The Hangover Part II" also continues to do well with its target demographic, helping solidify its status as one of the most lucrative comedies of all-time. Additionally, Woody Allen's "Midnight in Paris" is getting a nice expansion after a very strong limited release a week ago, which should be enough for it to land in the top ten for the second straight weekend.

When "X2: X-Men United" hit theaters back in 2003, Fox seemed to have a big-time franchise with a loyal fan base and worldwide appeal. "X-Men United" would go on to cross $400 million worldwide, though support started to wane by the time "X-Men: The Last Stand" hit theaters in 2006. Fox's attempt to start an "X-Men Origins" series then failed when "Wolverine" was shredded by critics and users alike in 2009, sending Fox back to the drawing board to come up with a new spin on the franchise.

Taking a page from "Star Trek," "X-Men: First Class" goes all the way back to the beginning of the story and shows the familiar Marvel characters as their identities are still getting shaped. Though the approach is nothing new at this point, "First Class" has been receiving very strong reviews so far and Fox is hopeful that it can pick up action audiences as "Pirates of the Caribbean" starts to slide.

With a Rotten Tomatoes rating in the 96-98% range heading into its release, "First Class" also has nearly universal critical support right now, which should help in the long run. Only a few big-budget summer releases have carried an RT rating above 90% over the past five years, a list that includes substantial commercial hits like "The Dark Knight," "Star Trek" and "Iron Man." Look for "X-Men: First Class" to put up a decent first weekend in the $50 to $58 million range but also to enjoy a steady box office run in the subsequent weeks.

The title that could prevent "X-Men" from having a huge opening weekend is "The Hangover Part II," the highly anticipated R-rated comedy sequel that continues to put up big numbers across the globe. "The Hangover Part II" hasn't even been in theaters for a week and has already crossed $140 million in domestic receipts and $200 million worldwide.

With "Part II" appealing to a much wider audience than normal for a comedy, it will likely take away some of the potential viewers from "X-Men: First Class." After grossing $86 million last weekend (not including Memorial Day), "The Hangover Part II" should be good for a weekend in the neighborhood of $40 million, which will make it one of the top hits of the year in terms of domestic revenue.

"Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" also continues to do very well with its target audience, though a sizeable slip should be seen this weekend due to the presence of "X-Men." Even with a notable decline, however, "On Stranger Tides" has already brought in an estimated $639 million worldwide, making it yet another tremendously lucrative release for Buena Vista/Disney.

Aimed at a much smaller overall audience is Woody Allen's latest romantic comedy, "Midnight in Paris." Though Allen's films have had limited appeal over the last few years, "Midnight in Paris" is benefitting from very good reviews so far and it put up big numbers in a 58-theater release a week ago. With an expansion to 147 venues, "Midnight in Paris" should find a little wider audience this weekend and finish in the top ten once again, which could pave the way for further expansions in the coming weeks.

Next weekend, J.J. Abrams' "Super 8" will hit theaters looking to find a wide audience with a PG-13 rating and the promise of plenty of action. Produced by Steven Spielberg, "Super 8" could be the rare action release that does very well commercially without a big star attached to the cast. Also getting launched next weekend will be "Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer," a PG comedy getting a much smaller overall release than "Super 8."

RTT Box Office Predictions for 6/3/11 - 6/5/11 (In Millions):

1. X-Men: First Class (Fox): $52

2. The Hangover Part II (Warner Brothers): $40

3. Kung Fu Panda 2 (Paramount/Dreamworks): $28

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Buena Vista/Disney): $16.5

5. True Jackson, VP: The Movie (Paramount): $12

6 Sonic X: The Final Stand (Fox): $9.4

7. Bridesmaids (Universal): $9.3

8. Thor (Paramount): $5.3

9. Fast Five (Universal): $3.3

10. Midnight in Paris (Sony Classics): $2.9

by RTT Staff Writer

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