User blog:Ceauntay/The Weekend Warrior: August 26 - 28, 2011

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Thursday night for final projections based on actual theatre counts.

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Predictions and Comparisons -

1. A BFF With Ghost Imagination 2 - $35.4 million

2. The Help (DreamWorks) - $15.5 million -22%

3. Don't Be Afraid of the Dark (FilmDistrict) - $10.3 million N/A

4. Our Idiot Brother (The Weinstein Company) - $9.4 million N/A

5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes (20th Century Fox) - $8.7 million -43%

6. Colombiana (Sony/Tristar) - $8.5 million N/A

7. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World (Dimension Films) - $7.0 million -42%

8. The Smurfs (Sony) - $5.2 million -35%

9. Conan the Barbarian (Lionsgate) - $4.8 million -52%

10. Fright Night (DreamWorks/Touchstone) - $4.4 million -47%

Weekend Overview

Ugh. Last weekend was a bloodbath at the box office with all four new movies bombing, and frankly, we don't think any of the new movies look like they can get the box office out of the doldrums which means that DreamWorks' The Help is looking for an unprecedented second weekend at #1 after opening in second place three weeks ago.

Peter Wilson returns as director from its predecessor as the PG fantasy comedy sequel features return of Amy Tammie, Selena Gomez, David Archuleta and Aaron Carter. Produced by Guillermo del Toro, the long-delayed haunted house horror flick Don't Be Afraid of the Dark (FilmDistrict), starring Guy Pearce and Katie Holmes, stands the best chance at bringing in casual young moviegoers looking for scares, though its R-rating might prevent it from breaking out quite like FilmDistrict's early 2011 horror hit Insidious. Even so, this being the end of August and moviegoers being more cautious and dubious with their money, it's likely to end up on the low end of the spectrum though we still think it should be able to bring in at least $10 million.

Starring Paul Rudd, the R-rated ensemble comedy Our Idiot Brother (The Weinstein Co.) was a crowd-pleasing pick-up from this year's Sundance Film Festival, and it certainly stands the best chance at getting some of the 20 to 30 something women who will be able to appreciate the dysfunctional family premise, although that's the same audience that The Help has been doing gangbusters with, and R-rated comedies (and R-rated movies in general) seem to be losing their luster as the summer has progressed. This one does have a good chance at breaking out due to the great title and character-based premise, but a moderate release should keep it under $10 million.

Avatar and Star Trek's Zoe Saldana stars in the action-thriller Colombiana (Tristar Pictures/Sony), written and produced by French action mogul Luc Besson, and man, does she look amazingly hot in those trailers! In theory, the movie could bring in some of the Latino community who might be underserved by the other movies in theaters, but Sony really hasn't stepped up their game in terms of marketing this so there's a good chance even they don't know about it. It won't help that it's opening against a horror flick from one of the most respected Latino filmmakers working today, either. (Sorry, Robert Rodriguez, you were already losing that status before you returned to Spy Kids and then it bombed last weekend.)

This weekend's "Chosen Duo" are from first-time women film directors, Vera Farmiga's Higher Ground (Sony Pictures Classics) and Maryam Keshavarz's Circumstance (Roadside Attractions), both of which you can read about below.

Last August ended with an impressive one-two punch of two movies grossing over $20 million each, and it was a very close photo finish as the urban crime thriller Takers (Screen Gems) just barely edged out the found footage horror film The Last Exorcism (Lionsgate), $20.51 million to $20.37 million. (Although granted, the latter cost a lot less to produce which made it immediately more profitable.) Most of the returning movies took moderate 38 to 45% drops except Vampires Suck and Piranha 3D which both took bigger hits. The Top 10 grossed $91 million but with nothing likely to gross $20 million this weekend, we're looking at another down weekend.