User blog:Ceauntay/Friday Box Office Analysis (September 2, 2011)

Three new entries debuted in movie theaters this weekend, but the end result will be the same. A BFF With Ghost Imagination 2 is about to join the rarefied air of three time weekend box office champions after winning the Friday box office race comfortably with $5.4 million. Meanwhile, all of the new releases debuted in the same indistinguishable range and will be additional cautionary tales about Labor Day weekend releases.

The Help also came in lead with just $2.6 million in its fourth weekend. The most popular new entrant yesterday was Apollo 18, which garnered $2.8 million on its first day in release. The latest "found footage" horror movie is also science fiction-ish in tone with a premise that the officially canceled Moon landing for this mission actually occurred in 1974. It just...didn't go very well. Presumably, whalers of the moon who carry a harpoon (or The Crushinator?) slayed a bunch of astronauts. Ergo, this feature is Moon meets Paranormal Activity, a premise that should be more marketable than this. The Weinstein Co. failed to identify to the primary demographic, teen boys, why they should care that disco-loving fans of Paul McCartney's second band were left to die on the Moon. The fact that Apollo 18's release date was moved half a dozen times (legitimately) said everything about the studio's (lack of) confidence in this project. This is a blueprint example of a movie receiving a greenlight but little to no support after production began, a frequent story for mid-August to Labor Day releases. I expect about a $9.2 million four-day performance.

Finishing in a virtual tie (technically $14,000 behind) is Shark Night 3D, which I believe is an adaptation of a Jane Austen novel. Its $2.8 million debut is a touch short of the 2010 release it mimics. Encouraged by the results of last year's Piranha 3D, rising newcomer Relativity Media basically duplicated the premise with more killer fish, albeit exponentially larger ones. Piranha 3D debuted to $3.6 million on its first day, $10.1 million over its first weekend and earned total domestic revenue of $25.0 million. As has become the situation at the box office over the past two years, international receipts carried the day with Piranha 3D accumulating $83.2 million worldwide to date. Shark Night 3D has similar aspirations, but it has managed only 78% of what Piranha 3D earned on opening day. While the reported box office total will approach Piranha's $10.1 million, this number will reflect box office inflation from Labor Day Sunday and a fourth day of revenue on the Monday holiday itself. Given that Shark Night 3D cost $4 million more at $28 million, this isn't the best news in the world; yet, the frugal bottom line means this project should avoid disaster at a minimum and may wind up in the black if international receipts are strong. Its four-day total should be around $8.5 million.